Covid19 Update May 11, 2020
Lockdown continues. There is no word of getting protective equiptmen, nor of any guidelines of how to re-open a large medical center. We remain hopeful.
You may becoming tired of hiding, sleeping in, experiencing irrational fears and repeatedly hand washing. I am becoming paranoid at the number of people who ring my doorbell and run. Bored of attending webinars, I enjoy calling random numbers in third world countries to sell duct cleaning or reclaim taxes. A year ago I may have been prescribed therapy and medication. I am increasingly following the Swedish situation which is accomplishing the same thing in a slightly different way. They were criticized initially for using sensible distancing vs social isolation, but defended it with scientific basis. People there are worried, take care to minimize spread but schools, and shops remain open. Lets just take a short reality check. Viruses and humans have co-existed for eons and it is worth looking at why this relationship has always existed. Malaria, tuberculosis and flu viruses are still the main problems on this planet. Swine flu, ebola, west nile, SARS, polio, are all epidemics that many of us have ridden through. One truism is that ALL PANDEMICS fizzle down. Why we dont take advice from the repeated play books the front line commanders write afterwards is bewildering. It would be useful to have those experienced frontliners from previous campaigns explain things. Turning the TV on only brings on a plethora of possibly well intentioned politicians and doctors who oversimplify and have difficulty explaining the situation. Encouraging people to hide, creates false hope that it will simply go away.
Good and significant data is emerging, but shared only in limited circles. A methodical study in a major outbreak center in Germany now suggests that, most people who have had the virus, got through it fine, and further calculate that the rare complication and death rate is much lower than the 10 -14 % estimated at the onset. Their data suggest in the range of 0.02%. The clinical picture of Covid19 differs and behaves slightly different, but the front line workers have adapted and learned a great deal. This results in earlier recognition of the rare complications and less intubation. Any serious lung infection affects the elderly and those who are infirm and bedbound much worse. An unusual difference with Covid is that the rare person deteriorates very suddenly, a scary sight for all involved. It also takes a few days longer to develope or notice any symptoms.
The curve you hear about, is an idealized concept based on calculated theory and not really science. Most epidemics dont follow idealized curves, but are lop-sided or have many ripples, so expect the same. Pushing down a peak to allow for better care makes sense, but how to do it remains a hot discussion topic. Closing borders AFTER your are inundated makes no sense, is was done more for political pressures than anything else. Wuhan was locked down completely with no movement of any kind, arrests, roadblocks and violence, but too late to make any difference according to textbooks. What border closures have done is to turn a PANDEMIC into dozens of mini Epidemics. Each will have its own set of problems, poverty, lack of resources, etc and ways of handling things, so comparisons will be hard to make. Bill Gates gave a TED talk five years ago, and his predictions were spot on and impressivly accurate. His message was ignored.
Our immune system is amazing and complex. Many of us will only need the circulating inate immune system to get through this, while others will manufacture reinforcements such as antibodies to complete the job. A recent letter to the editor appeared in local papers submitted by a group of medical experts. It was relegated to the back pages, but stressed that it looks like spread is by droplet fashion. Droplets are heavy and dont travel far. The significance is that this implies that it takes a very LARGE viral load, perhaps millions to infect someone to the point of symptoms. This directly speaks to the fear that a box on your doorstep will not result in infection. Over 90% of people who thought they had covid and went for testing were negative. This suggests that you may want to worry more about the multitude of other bugs found in the environment around us. Health workers are prone to being exposed to high doses