2020 Novel Coronavirus- update
Feb 5, 2020
Laboratory confirmed cases 21,000. Estimated untested cases 37000- 130,000. This uses the same science we use with influenza virus, where we extrapolate confirmed cases into the community. China has the densist world population, and this can be met with problems and inaccuracies. There are 427 deaths with confirmed data, but numerous other deaths are currently not added into the total unless there is laboratory proof, so toll is higher. Only 711 fully recovered, so death rates, etc, cannot yet be accurately determined. Doubling time is 6 days. Flights from the epicenter have been largely stopped, Risk in our region is low at this time. Problem is that illness looks similar to most other circulating viruses and only laboratory confirmation can tell the difference, which is impractical on a large scale. Seems that mild cough is first symptom, with the fever appearing up to a week later. Death rate is significant but looks like over 90 percent of people recover. Males, elderly and infirm seem to make up the majority of confirmed cases. We may be in a lull spot between new waves of spread. Time will allow better prediction. No vaccines yet or effective cure. Keep your immune system healthy. China is being proactive and moving forward. Much talk has been with regard to the new 1000 bed hospital built for severe coronavirus patients. To put in perspective, China has 33,000 hospitals and could fit almost the entire population of Canada into a hospital bed at one time! Half a billion patients went through this enormous system last year, which underscored how difficult it would be pick out one particular illness that resembles many others.
Jan 31 2020: Positive Cases in every region of China: Estimates of 8-10,000 cases, over 300 deceased. First physician fatality reported. Spread confirmed to at least 20 countries. 3 confirmed cases in Canada, 19 under investigation. Canada- China flights suspended, Travel advisory against travelling to China. Influenza A, continues to exert its annual effect in our catchment area. WHO considers calling the situation a pandemic. Economies will be severely effected which at this time is becoming a significant worry.Canadian officials are reveiwing and ensuring that adequate containment and response measures are ready to go if needed.
wed jan 29th: the virus has spread to at least 16 countries. Global response varies and depends on the governement. Hong Kong has closed borders,Russia has closed borders. The decision to close a border is made by the government of the country. WHO continues to debate the usefullness of this measure. Canada continues to welcome chinese travellers. Overall numbers of infection and death continue to DOUBLE DAILY. Toronto area appears to be the hub at this time and has a case that appears to have spread locally, without any history of travel but contact with a traveller. Infection seems to favour males in their fifties. Children are affected much less, unlike influenza A, which continues to be our major viral problem currently. The WHO feels that it is still early and continues to be in the outbreak stage. It has not been contained as of yet and neither has the animal source been identified. Efforts underway to develope a vaccine. A blood test is available but requires access through a special hotline and strict criteria must be met.
Please see below for more info and how to screen and prevent.